The following post was inspired by Alltime Conspiracies’ video “Is ISIS starting WW3?“. All information stated below were researched.
The 21th century has been the victim of a rise in terrorism. Since 2006, a shocking 130 000 fatalities have been declared, with approximately 10 000 men, women and children executed in Iraq and Syria alone. Could ISIS’ military force of 200 000 people in the Middle East be the trigger that could lead to a third world war?
“We will engage in a pitiless war against those responsible for the attacks,” said French President Francois Hollande in response to the terrorist attacks that Paris suffered from on November 13, 2015.
But can the French and its allies really declare war on an ideology and a “hidden” enemy?
“An attack against one Ally is considered as an attack against all Allies.” (NATO treaty, Article 5).
Since the early 2000s, a coalition consisting of the United States, Australia, the UK and Turkey are conducting air strikes on targeted bases. To this day, NATO has the strongest military power on the planet, with 3 million troops, 25 000 aircrafts and 800 ocean war ships. Would ISIS even have a shot at victory against that much man power?
Unfortunately, the problem doesn’t lie here. Tensions among world powers have a greater chance at sparking another Great War than the threat of terrorism.
ISIS is predominately present in Syria, which has been fighting a civil war since 2011. In order to reach then, NATO would have to enter the country which would endanger foreign political relations. Since 2011, Russia and Iran have been supporting the Assad regime and fighting against the rebels – intervention into Syria could be seen by as an act of support for the rebels. This could cause Russia to retaliate against NATO.
According to recent studies, Russia’s military spending is expected to increase by 44% in the next three years, reaching a total of over 110 billion dollars.
Allied with Russia is India and China, who represent some of the most significant military powers on the planet. Furthermore, if China were to enter any war against the US, North Korea would quickly join in due to the strong anti-American sentiment that exists within the country.
Nowadays, due to the constant foreign intervention, skies over Syria are starting to become crowded, increasing the chance of an accident that could spark a war.
In recent years, Eastern countries have started to match the military and economic power that was once reserved to Western countries.
In a recent speech, Chinese president Xi Jinping called for “a great renaissance of the Chinese nation,” hoping to return the country to its former role of central power during the middle ages, asserting the long term goal of overtaking the US economically and military-wise.
But what are the likelihood of an actual full blown war?
In our modern world, a total of nine countries possess 19 000 nuclear weapons, all 100 times stronger than those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki back in 1945; if all of those arms were deployed, it could cause a total extinction of humanity.
But the true setback lies in finances. China is among the US’ most prominent trading partners while Russia, on the other hand, would struggle with the cost of a full blown war.
As for ISIS, they would be unable to deploy forces in every domain like many true state powers, making the chances of WW3 slight but not impossible.
As the Telegraph states:
“World War 3 would be an epic failure of deterrence and diplomacy.”